CMBS data reveals how Denver’s commercial real estate market is recalibrating across office, multifamily, retail, industrial, and hospitality.
For commercial real estate aficionados, the rise of Denver is one of the more fascinating case studies among the top 25 MSAs. It illustrates how the right mix of lifestyle, infrastructure, and capital can rapidly elevate a city from regional hub to national market.
Looking back 15 years to Denver’s Union Station/FasTracks project and the rise of LoDo, a development boom was ignited. Billions in investment followed the waves of young professionals moving west with their Big Ten degrees, Patagonia puffers, and rescue animals.
At a time when the concept of work-life balance was gaining momentum, young people viewed Denver’s temperate weather and nearby mountains as an opportunity to “work where you play.” Jobs were added as companies relocated or expanded to the metro, and developers rushed to build amenitized luxury apartments to house the bright young workforce flush with discretionary income. It was all sunshine and rainbows for a full decade, and Denver had officially earned its place on the CRE investment map.
But here we are now in a post-pandemic, politically tumultuous, high-interest-rate environment, and the question is: what happened to the CRE poster child of the 2010s? To find out, we did what we always do at BCA: we dug into the numbers.
For Background: BCA’s Data
CMBS loan data is valuable because it provides a quantitative, standardized, and transparent snapshot of a local market’s health in a way few other sources can. Because CMBS pools span multiple property types, we can identify which asset classes are struggling and which are thriving. The following data was sourced from Trepp on November 1, 2025.
Retail & Industrial: The Good News
The Denver MSA is outperforming every other top 25 MSA in both retail and industrial right now. Only 6.2% ($79 million) of CMBS retail loans are watch-listed, with just one property delinquent and none with a DSCR below 1.0x. In the industrial sector, 23% of loans (31 buildings, $189 million) are watch-listed. That might sound high, but it is better than every other MSA except one. No CMBS industrial loans are delinquent, and none have a DSCR below 1.0x.
Office: The Bad News
Meanwhile, office is a completely different story. Denver has the highest percentage of properties with a DSCR below 1.0x among all top 25 MSAs (39% of CMBS loans, $6.2 billion). CBRE reported that Q3 2025 office vacancy reached 28.2% metro-wide, with CBD rates even higher. In a city built upon work-life balance, return-to-office mandates likely fell on deaf ears.
Multifamily: Limping Along
Multifamily is showing signs of stress as well. The Denver MSA has the 7th-highest number of CMBS multifamily loans on the watch list (162 properties, $2.9 billion). Another $238 million in loans are delinquent (10th-highest of the top 25), and a total of $2.3 billion in loans have DSCRs below 1.0x (12th-highest). This is almost certainly the result of oversupply created during the pre-pandemic boom.
Hospitality: Not Great Either
Denver’s hospitality sector is also under pressure, where 43% of hotel loans are watch-listed (20 loans, $390 million), the 5th-highest rate among the top 25 MSAs. Six hotel loans are currently delinquent (totaling $42 million), and six have DSCRs below 1.0x (totaling $90 million).
Denver CRE’s Next Chapter in a Normalizing Market
Much like the rest of the top 25 MSAs, Denver has its problem sectors, but the area remains an affluent, educated market. Moreover, it is still a relatively small market compared to many peers, so its challenges are proportionally smaller. Denver may never again achieve its 2010s growth rate, but as long as those mountains stay put, the outdoor adventurers will come and the investment dollars will follow, albeit at a more cautious pace.
