Commercial real estate has been waiting on “the maturity wall” for two years. The headlines say it is coming. The charts say it is coming. Yet the market keeps moving forward without the dramatic clearing event many predicted.
In a recent episode of The Debt Doctor podcast with host Bill Bymel, Brighton Capital Advisors Managing Principal Michael Cohen breaks down why that is happening, what the maturity numbers are really telling us, and why 2026 is shaping up to be the year where more of the market is forced into true price discovery.
“Everybody just finished the pre-game stretch and the players are now running onto the field. Stage 26. Buckle in for 26.”
– Michael Cohen, Brighton Capital Advisors
Why maturities have not “hit” the way people expected
Cohen points to a simple but overlooked reality: many CMBS loans maturing recently were originated in a lower-rate environment, and a large percentage carried coupons that are difficult to replace today. In late 2025 alone, Cohen notes that CMBS maturities were substantial, and many of those loans were priced at 5% or below.
That matters because when debt is cheap enough, lenders and borrowers can often find a way to extend. Not forever, but long enough to delay the moment when a refinance, sale, or capital reset becomes unavoidable.
Extensions, in Cohen’s view, are not a sign that the market is “fine.” They are a sign that lenders are cautious about where to exit, and borrowers have limited places to go.
The refinance funnel is narrower than most borrowers realize
Even though parts of the lending market have reopened, Cohen describes a constrained refinancing landscape, especially for riskier property types and weaker stories.
Conduit execution exists, but it is selective. Balance sheets may be open, but many lenders are not eager to add exposure to certain office profiles or lower-quality multifamily loans. Cohen also points to the kind of underwriting signals that show up in today’s market, including a stronger focus on debt yield, lower leverage, and cleaner sponsorship.
The takeaway is blunt: refinancing is available, but only for borrowers who can fit through a much tighter door.
CMBS is not a relationship loan, and the rules are the game
One of Cohen’s most important themes is structural: CMBS is not bank lending. It is a securitized product governed by a pooling and servicing agreement, tax rules, and a waterfall that shapes who has influence and why.
A borrower may feel like they are negotiating with a servicer. In reality, servicers are operating inside a system where approvals, incentives, and control can shift based on the bond stack.
Cohen describes the “controlling class holder” as a key decision driver in many special servicing outcomes. That party, typically positioned lower in the bond structure, can exert significant influence over workouts, modifications, and liquidations.
He also describes the dynamic in plain terms: it often does not feel logical to borrowers because the system is not designed around the borrower’s logic. It is designed around bond economics.
The borrower mistake Cohen sees most often
Cohen describes two borrower behaviors that consistently lead to worse outcomes:
- Waiting for special servicing as a strategy: Some borrowers assume they can delay, transfer, fight, and negotiate later. Cohen argues that this mindset was more common in earlier CMBS eras, but it does not translate well to the current environment.
- Doing nothing and hoping rates fix the problem: Cohen’s message here is direct: inaction is still a decision, and it usually narrows options.
His practical guidance is timing. Borrowers should be engaging well ahead of maturity, not at the edge. In the current environment, waiting too long often means higher fees, more friction, and less ability to shape the path forward.
What “price discovery” looks like from here
Cohen frames price discovery as a sequence. First, markets stabilize around the coupon environment. Then cap rates normalize around that reality. Then transactions become easier to underwrite and execute.
He also links market distress to asset quality tiers. In his telling, higher-quality assets have been stabilizing first, followed by a gradual settling of the “middle,” and then distress tends to follow after those plateaus form.
That is where his “Stage 26” line lands, not as a dramatic prediction, but as a market mechanic. The cycle moves when enough assets are forced to reset at real pricing.
Where the stress is building
While office remains the obvious headline, Cohen highlights several stress points that are less discussed in simple terms:
- Office: not just “office is bad,” but the difference between structurally obsolete product versus good buildings facing tenant timing shocks.
- Multifamily: over-leverage, especially where assumptions were built on aggressive rent growth or capital chasing yield.
- Hotels: a more technical risk tied to how COVID-era extensions were managed, including the use of reserves and deferred needs that reappear when brand standards and PIPs come due.
Across these, Cohen’s emphasis is consistent: loan documents, servicing mechanics, and timing matter as much as the real estate story.
Why 2026 keeps coming up
Cohen’s argument is not that one date flips a switch. It is that momentum is building across servicing desks and bond stakeholders, and behavior is changing.
Servicers are getting more aggressive about enforcing covenants that might have been ignored or delayed earlier in the cycle. Borrowers are facing more requests for structure, more scrutiny, and less patience for last-minute workouts. As Cohen describes it, many loans are being reviewed as if they were just acquired today, not as legacy positions that will simply glide to an extension.
That is the backdrop for his message: prepare early, build a plan that fits the CMBS rule set, and protect downside risk while you pursue the best possible outcome.
Closing thought
The maturity wall narrative makes the cycle sound like a single event. Cohen’s perspective is more operational: the cycle is a process, and the market is now entering the phase where more assets will have to confront the math.
Or, as he put it: everybody has finished the pre-game stretch. The players are running onto the field.
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